Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of SW Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, to 10N17W and 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W, to 05N26W 01N36W, to the Equator along 42W, and to the Equator along 49W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 07N southward between 32W and 55W. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 03N to 07N between 13W and 16W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere from 13W eastward.

Gulf Of Mexico

A surface ridge passes through 26N66W in the Atlantic Ocean, through the NW Bahamas, into the east central Gulf of Mexico, toward the upper Texas Gulf coast. Fresh to strong SE winds have been from just offshore the northern Yucatan Peninsula to 25N between 87W and 90W. Fresh SE winds are elsewhere in the middle one-third of the area. Fresh SE winds are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate seas are in the open waters of the western half of the Gulf. Slight seas are in the coastal waters of the western half of the area. Slight to moderate seas are from 90W eastward.

A NW-to-SE oriented inland Mexico surface trough passes through 25N100W, to the SW Gulf coastal waters near 19N96W, and it continues to 16N86W in the coastal plains of Honduras. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in the satellite imagery.

Haze in the observations is making the visibilities to be lower, from the Yucatan Peninsula westward. Agricultural fires continue in SE Mexico. MVFR conditions are in the coastal plains from Texas to Florida.

Mainly fresh SE winds will prevail across much of the Gulf through tonight, ahead of a cold front slowly approaching from the NW. The cold front will move off the Texas coast into the northwest Gulf Fri and move SE, stalling from south Texas to the Straits of Florida on Sun, then weaken and drift northward. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds will follow the front into Sat evening. Haze due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico persists across most of the western Gulf. Patchy fog is possible along the northern Gulf coast today.

Caribbean Sea

An upper level trough is generating cyclonic wind flow between 45W and 80W. This area includes the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough is along 16N70W, through the easternmost sections of the Dominican Republic, 20N64W, curving to 25N60W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is to the south of the line: from 20N at the NE coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, to 20N and SE Cuba, to 17N70W, to 16N60W. The upper level trough will continue to move more toward the northeast of the area through tonight. Atmospheric conditions will begin to stabilize in its wake. Abundant deep layer tropical moisture is just to the east of the NE Caribbean Sea. Has been remaining in the eastern Caribbean Sea. Persistent daily rainfall in the Greater Antilles and in the NE Caribbean Sea islands during the past several days has left the ground at or near saturation. River levels are high in this region also. Please, read advisories, bulletins, forecasts, watches and warnings, for specific information about hazardous local conditions, from your local weather bureau offices.

Slight to moderate seas are in the eastern one-third of the area. Slight seas are in the central one-third of the area. Moderate seas are from 80W westward. Fresh SE winds are from 50 nm to 190 nm of the coast of Venezuela between 62W and 69W. Some fresh NE winds are from 11N to 14N between 74W and 77W. Moderate E to SE winds are elsewhere from 70W eastward. Moderate NE to E are elsewhere between 70W and 80W. Fresh to strong E to SE winds have been from Honduras northward. Moderate winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 09/1200 UTC, are: 0.55 in Guadeloupe; and 0.02 in San Juan in Puerto Rico. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

The Atlantic ridge extends from the central Atlantic westward to central Florida, and will shift slowly eastward through the weekend. This pattern will support moderate to fresh trade winds over the south-central and SE Caribbean through the weekend, with some increasing winds possible early next week. Meanwhile, expect pulses of fresh to locally strong E winds at night across the Gulf of Honduras into the start of next week due to the pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure over Central America. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere.

Atlantic Ocean

An upper level trough is generating cyclonic wind flow between 45W and 80W. This area includes the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough is along 16N70W, through the easternmost sections of the Dominican Republic, 20N64W, curving to 25N60W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are between 30W and 60W. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 09/1200 UTC, are: 0.06 in Bermuda. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. Abundant deep layer tropical moisture is just to the east of the NE Caribbean Sea.

A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 31N38W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean. An exception is close to the 16N70W 25N60W surface trough.

Fresh NE winds are from 17N southward between 33W and 46W, and from 12N southward between 46W and 60W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are elsewhere to the southeast of the line 24N56W 28N37W 31N29W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are from 28N northward from 70W westerly. Moderate or slower anticyclonic winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate to rough seas are from 16N northward between 25W and 50W, and from 17N to 24N between 50W and 55W. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

1023 mb high pressure is centered across the central Atlantic near 31N38W and extends a ridge westward to central Florida. The ridge will shift slowly eastward through the weekend, as a cold front approaches from the NW. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop off of northeast and central Florida this evening, then become SW and shift to offshore of northeast Florida Fri through Fri evening. The front will move offshore of northeast Florida early Fri night and across Florida on Sat, bringing moderate to fresh NW winds behind it. The front will weaken significantly by Sun afternoon as it moves east of 65W.

Posted 1 hour, 48 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Mt/Ss